A Christian Liberal is NOT an oxymoron.

Here’s a collection of my contributions to The American Prospect Online‘s “Mid-Term Madness blog” during the election season of 2006. Unfortunately, the entire blog was deleted and no archives remain. I’ve managed to pull these back from the brink of oblivion.

October:
NJ-SEN: MENENDEZ UP. A poll released by the Bergen Record found a lot of good news for Republican hopeful Tom Kean, Jr — but not quite enough. Voters like the Republican more than Democratic Senator Bob Menendez by a margin of 48-33. They think he’s more trustworthy by a margin of 49-36. Heck, Kean even managed to out-fundraise Menendez in the last quarter. But voters still prefer to send Menendez back to Washington by a 48-42 margin. That’s just outside of the margin of error, but still within range of the 7% of likely vote.

The reason? Well, New Jerseyans want to see Democrats control Congress (53-35) and are more likely to rate President Bush’s job performance as “poor” than anything else (32%). While Kean has been able to solidify support with his partisans more than Menendez (88-80), he has never had an advantage among independent voters (45-46) — the voters to whom his entire campaign has pandered. In Democratic-leaning New Jersey, that should be enough to give Menendez a slim victory — but it may also be enough to launch Kean, Jr on a gubernatorial candidacy in three years. (October 30, 2006)

NC-11: SNIPPY IN NC. Heath Shuler is an incumbent Republican’s nightmare — a pro-life, pro-business, evangelical Democrat with gonzo name-recognition in the football-crazy South. Shuler has also been able to match timber magnate and incumbent Republican Charles Taylor’s independent expenditures. Taylor, who doesn’t usually have to campaign much, has had to resort to calling in big-name Republicans.

The problem is that, even in Carolina, people aren’t buying what Republicans are selling. The Charlotte Observer reports:

According to the poll, 3 out of 4 Democrats disapprove of the Republican-controlled Congress. So do nearly two-thirds of self-described independents and almost half of Republicans.Disapproval is strongest among people over 55. Two-thirds of them give Congress a thumbs-down.

This atmosphere, along with his unusual credentials, has given Shuler a boost in the polls, which generally show him with a 5 to 8 point lead over the incumbent. This should only be enhanced by the recent endorsement of Shuler by the Henderson Times-News. Reuters reports that Charles Taylor has reacted as a true Southern gentleman — by attacking the newspaper in a letter advising Henderson County voters “not to make the same choice as your New York Times-owned and operated newspaper.”

Short tempers are never a good sign in incumbents who are trailing in the polls.rs who say they are undecided. (October 30, 2006)

NM-1: DOWN TO THE WIRE. Democratic Attorney General Patricia Madrid is going into the last full week before elections with a razor-thin lead over incumbent Republican Heather Wilson. Of course, the poll was run before the televised debate last week. Who won the debate largely depends on who you ask, though most observers found the incumbent to be more polished. Wilson, indeed, has jumped on a verbal stumble of Madrid’s during the debate and turned it into an attack ad — using a bit of creative editing to make it stick:
The ad uses a portion of the debate where Wilson asks Madrid, “Can you cite something that would give the people of New Mexico some kind of reassurance that you will prevent a tax increase?”

Madrid pauses before saying, “Your president and you have — have voted for a tax relief.”
Here is Madrid’s full answer:
Madrid: “Your president and you have voted for tax relief for the top 1 percent of taxpayers in this country, costing us an immeasurable amount of money. If I go to Congress, I will vote to repeal that tax relief. I do support tax relief for the middle class, even the upper middle class.”
It isn’t exactly a dirty ad, but it is misleading — but with so little time left, that may be all that is needed to stall a surging Madrid. (October 30, 2006)

IL-6: AND WE ARE ALL THANKFUL. Peter Roskam, the Republican candidate trying to win Henry Hyde’s open seat, is claiming that the only thing he’d ban is Speedos — and he has footage of a younger version of himself wearing one to show why. But it’s unclear if the humor will help when his opponent, Democrat Tammy Duckworth, is making headway on the issue of stem cell research. There are many indications that Duckworth has been successful in upending what should have been an easy Republican victory. But with Republicans threatening an all-out assault for the last week before the election, the four-point advantage held by Roskam may be enough to fend off Duckworth in the end. (October 30, 2006)

AZ-8: GIFFORDS SETTING THE PACE. If Dems do manage to take control of the House this year, one of the reasons may be a strong showing in a dusty 9,000 square mile congressional district on the Mexican border. Gabrielle Giffords is showing that she is a real candidate with a real chance to win — she is maintaining a double-digit lead over her opponent going into the last full week before the election. The more you read the poll results, the better that news gets for Giffords.

Even though immigration is by far the most important issue in the district, only 8% of voters support Giffords for her immigration position — and only 18% of those supporting her opponent, Randy Graf, do so for that reason. Meanwhile 28% of Giffords supporters claim they will vote for her because of her policy positions, while Graf’s largest demographic is the 35% of his supporters who simply won’t vote against a Republican. It helps that her positions clearly separate her from her opponent.

Giffords success would seem to both vindicate Howard Dean’s 50-state strategy — retiring Congressman Jim Kolbe has held this seat for eleven terms — and make an emphatic statement that voters don’t want a Democrat who is “Republican-lite”. In a district that seemed hopelessly Republican, a Democrat who has been attacked by her opponent as “having an embarrassing liberal voting record” is poised to declare victory over a candidate who has been endorsed by both Arizona Republican Senators — John McCain and Jon Kyl. But don’t look for Giffords to be doing an end-zone dance – rather, she’s making a goal-line push with a mailer that stresses her bi-partisan ideology. (October 30, 2006)

TN-SEN: THIRD TIME’S THE CHARM. The third and final debate for the seat being vacated by Bill Frist illustrated some dramatic differences between Democratic Congressman Harold Ford, Jr and Republican Mayor Bob Corker. Ford appeared ready to slap aside criticism that Democrats don’t have any plan for Iraq by stating that he would support dividing Iraq into three autonomous states — which Corker dismissed out of hand. The candidates also took opposing sides on Social Security, with Corker stating he believed that President Bush’s private accounts could work and Ford proposing witholding benefits from the wealthy as a way to save the ailing system. Both candidates agreed that negative campaign ads run by independent organizations should stop — though neither claimed the ability to make that happen. The only other thing they seemed to agree on was that the other candidate had weak ties to Tennessee.

Overall, the debate doesn’t look like it will change many voter’s minds. But while Republicans are dancing in the endzone over a five-point lead, the real winners in this contest can be declared — YouTube and Chris Clark – the debate moderator. (October 30, 2006)

AL-GOV: YES, I’M SERIOUS. In a move that manages to ensure marijuana never gets legalized while setting back the cause of women’s rights by, oh, at least a decade, Libertarian candidate Loretta Nall is running an insurgent campaign against incumbent Republican Governor Bob Riley and Democratic Lt. Governor Lucy Baxley. Nall’s current claim to fame is the size of her breasts, and she is urging people to “elect the right boobs”. Even though the “boob angle” is enough to get her mentioned in the press, she still wasn’t able to collect the minimum number of signatures to get on the ballot. So if you want to vote for boobs and panties, you’ll have to move to Alabama — and cast a write-in vote. In a race where the incumbent looks headed to an easy victory, at least Loretta Nall gives us a reason to watch Alabama. (October 24, 2006)

TN-SEN: OCTOBER SURPRISE FOR GOP. When Bob Corker ran in the GOP primary, he argued that he should be annointed to succeed Bill Frist because he was successful as both the mayor of Chattanooga and a private businessman. Now it looks like he may have been trying to merge those two positions.

The Memphis Commercial Appeal is reporting that the blind trust Corker created when he was mayor might have actually had pretty good vision after all. Just days after Corker signed an order for a road to be built through environmentally sensitive land, Corker sold land he owned adjacent to the proposed roadway to Wal-Mart for $4.6 million. Even more suspiciously, records indicate that Corker met with officials of his private venture capital group during the negotiations for the roadway/Wal-Mart deal.

Emails show a pattern of combining business and public service. When Corker became mayor, he brought an executive from his company along to be his chief of staff. Records indicate that this assistant was aware of Corker’s stock holdings and referred to attending meetings for “the Corker Group leasing meeting.” The Mayor’s secretary used her official city email to send Corker Bush/Cheney voter lists as well.

This comes on the heels of news that Corker might have needed such under-the-table help as a businessman. After losing a million of his own dollars with Delta Capital Management, Corker used his position as mayor to help award Delta a contract to manage the city’s pension funds. Corker continued to support Delta, including golfing with its general manager, despite negative reports from the city’s investment consultant. Yet there is no record that Corker ever revealed his failed history of investing with Delta.

This is not the sort of publicity any candidate wants when they are running slightly behind in a tight race. It looks almost as if Corker is actively trying to see how much bad news he can hit the public with in the last month of the race. (October 12, 2006)

-->