A Christian Liberal is NOT an oxymoron.

Posted by XT on October 18th, 2009 in World News

A week or two back, a student in one of my classes brought up the issue of Iran developing a nuclear weapon. I said that the first step in understanding Iran was to first reject the notion that President Ahmadinejad (and the Council of Clerics) is crazy. In fact, if we don’t reject that notion, then there is no way to predict behavior in that country.

To do that, we have to admit that there are probably some political actors in that country that would happily bring about Armageddon. But, just like in our own country, those persons are kept away from the little red button. The people who are actually making strategic decisions aren’t so willing to kill the planet, if for no other reason than because they want to live themselves.

Now look at today’s offering from Joseph Cirincione in the Washington Post. Note that he says we can’t stop Iran’s nuclear weapons program with a military strike, with sanctions, or with a regime change. In other words, we can’t stop their nuclear program unless we address the reasons why it exists in the first place.

Consider this map from the Washington Post. A nuclear-tipped Sajjil-2 could strike Israel, of course, but it could also hit Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey, Pakistan, and parts of India, as well.

The main reasons for Iran’s nuclear project exist to both the east and the west of Iran. To the east, both Pakistan and India already have nuclear weapons, as does Israel to the west. The strife between Israel and Iran is pretty well documented and in the public record, so I won’t really go into it at this point.

The problem with Pakistan is that it is never more than one lunatic with a gun away from anarchy. And while the lunatic fringe in Pakistan is generally aimed at India, it is not beyond belief that they could cast greedy eyes at Iran’s oil fields. Or, more likely, they could cast greedy eyes on Iran’s oil money. What better way to finance your war than to threaten Tehran with nuclear destruction if they don’t pay your protection money? Additionally, both countries consider parts of Afghanistan to be within their spheres of influence.

That leaves India, which generally doesn’t have any formal tensions with Iran. In fact, Iran exports a lot of oil to India, which turns it into diesel and sends it back to Iran. But relations are complex. Iran has voted against Iran in the International Atomic Energy Agency and Iran has protested the treatment of Muslim Kashmiris. It is possible that Iran wants a nuclear weapon to help influence India in global political considerations – to create an alternative to backing the US (as the IAEA vote is widely considered to be coerced by the US).

As far as Saudi Arabia is concerned, the two countries have always been the big boys on the block, challenging each other for dominance. Well, more like they have postured for dominance. But a nuclear weapon would mean that Saudi Arabia could no longer act unilaterally, even with the backing of the United States.

While Iran generally has good relations with Turkey, a nuclear weapon might well tip relations in Iran’s favor with Azerbaijan. Similarly, it could tip favor away from Egypt and towards Iran with Syria and Jordan. Syria and Iran already have a mutual-defense treaty (which has to be seen as more of a benefit for Syria than Iran).

But the real reason, I believe, for Iran to develop a nuclear weapon is that it will allow Iran to get into the MAD game. Mutual Assured Destruction is what protected the US and USSR, not only from nuclear war, but traditional warfare as well. If that is true, then a nuclear-armed Iran could be a major development towards long-term peace. The problem, of course, is that the less sane elements in Iran could always gain control of those weapons…and Pakistan is already a nuclear-powered nutjob state.

In the end, I fear that we might not be able to stop Iran, no matter what we do. But here is a final point to consider: Iran could easily pull this off in secret. After all, Pakistan didn’t disclose it had a nuclear weapon program until they tested their first weapon. So why is Iran relatively open about their program? The answer, I believe, is that they seek MAD.

Sphere: Related Content