Terror attacks in Mumbai


CNN is mulitple terror attacks in Mumbai, India. The coordination and use of military-style weapons, to me, indicates that this is not a simple home-grown cell that aimed at random mayhem. Consider that they reportedly targeted American and/or British citizens and the financial district of the area.

My concern here is that this could be an escalation of a rare winter campaign for Al Qaeda. President-elect Barack Obama has promised to focus attention on Afghanistan, and I think this is – possibly – an attempt to derail such efforts.

There are three main groups of concern in Afghanistan – the Afghani Talibani, the Pakistani Talibani, and Arabic Al Qaeda. In order to focus on Afghanistan, we would have to convince Pakistan that its major threat is no longer invasion from India, but insurgents from Afghanistan. This would allow a move of military resources from Pakistan’s southern border (with India) to its northern border (with Afghanistan).

This action is sure to get the Indian military to react – and Mumbai isn’t too far from the Pakistani border. Close enough that Pakistan will feel that they cannot abandon their positions in their southern flank. It means that any American and NATO forces dropped into Afghanistan will not get material aid from Pakistan.

And it is likely to spur hatred and perhaps violence between random Hindu and Muslim nationalist forces in both Pakistan and India.

I hope I’m wrong. But the recent attack by the Indian Navy on Somali pirates (which could have Al Qaeda connections) could provide a motivational link that would be missing otherwise.

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