When will they call Virginia


Signs it could be over early:

Virginia also offers Obama an opportunity to land an early blow on election night that would likely render the rest of the evening ceremonial. “Obama can be president even if he loses in Virginia but it’s hard to see how McCain could be if he doesn’t win here,” Nolan says.

A lot depends on voter turnout – especially young voter turnout – and how long it actually takes to count the ballots. Whoever wins two of the three states of Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Ohio will be President – and I think Obama will likely run the table on that. At this point, I’m wondering if Obama can make it to 400 electoral votes.

And if you want to know why Obama is locking up Virginia:

Sen. Barack Obama’s field office here was once a dress shop but is now the hub for a four-county voter turnout operation in Southside Virginia, where Democrats typically get clobbered. The roster of Democratic politicians who have been whipped in this region is impressive. Take Mecklenburg County, where Chase City is located: Jim Webb was beaten here by 19 points in 2006, Tim Kaine by 12 points in 2005, John Kerry by 16 points in 2004, Al Gore by 16 points in 2000. Even Mark Warner, the most successful Democrat of note in Southside Virginia, lost in Mecklenburg County en route to winning the governorship in 2001.

It’s the 50-state strategy carried to the nth degree. Compete everywhere. Even when it looks hopeless. Because that’s where hope is needed the most.

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