When the trickle becomes a wave
From CNN, we get a “late-breaking” picture of House races. Follow the link and read it, then come back.
I’ll wait.
Notice anything? Every example is an incumbent Republican that is in trouble.
Understand that House races are either the second (if there’s no Senate race) or third (if there is) choice that voters make this year. As the Obama campaign has turned back the McSame campaign into traditionally safe Republican areas, the trickle of House seats in danger of flipping has become a wave. Electoral-Vote.com is predicting 250 seats going to the Democrats – that would mean Democrats would pick up fifteen seats. But that would mean Democrats would pick up fewer seats this year than they did in 2006 (31).
Polling is particularly hard to come by for House elections, since their gerrymandered districts make it difficult for pollsters to identify voters accurately. Still, I’d be surprised if Democrats don’t manage to pick up around thirty seats in November. With Democrats looking at picking up Senate seats in Virginia, New Mexico, Colorado, New Hampshire, Oregon, North Carolina, Alaska, and maybe Minnesota (go Franken!), you can expect very broad-based gains. This isn’t a regional sweep – it’s going to be coast-to-coast Housecleaning.
I think the fifteen seats already called for Dems in the House are the low-lying fruit. Consider the Senate races to watch are in Kentucky, Mississippi, and Georgia. And Saxby Chambliss is only ahead by two in Georgia.
Thems the breaks.
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