A Christian Liberal is NOT an oxymoron.

Posted by XT on June 18th, 2008 in Campaign News

During the last two Presidential elections, we heard a lot about “swing states”. Florida and Ohio were the two big ones, but Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania made it in the consideration, along with a few others. But I think the winner may actually be decided in the states along the Mississippi-Ohio River. Those states include Ohio (20), Indiana (11), Illinois (21), Kentucky (8), Michigan(10), Wisconsin (10), Iowa (7), Missouri (11), Tennessee (11), Arkansas(6), Louisianna (9), and Mississippi (6). That’s a total of 130 electoral votes - almost half of the total needed to win the election.

In 2004, George Bush took Ohio, Indiana, Kentucky, Iowa, Missouri, Arkansas, Tennessee, Lousianna, and Mississippi - 89 electoral votes. Kerry won the remainder (duh!) for 41 votes. By more than two-to-one, George Bush won the River states.

In 2000, the only thing that changed was the name of George Bush’s competitor - and Iowa. Because Illinois had one more electoral vote in 2002 than in 2004, Gore’s total in the River states was 50 electoral votes. Bush won 85 electoral votes.

In 1992 and again in 1996, Bill Clinton took every single river state except for Indiana and Mississippi. He beat GHW Bush and Bob Dole 116 to 19.

In 1988, the river states swung heavily for Poppy. He lost only in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa. The margin was 113 to 29. In 1980 and 1984, Ronald Reagan took every state but Minnesota.

In 1976, Ford managed to win only in Indiana, Illinois, and Iowa. He lost 45 to 100.

In 1972, Nixon took every single one. In 1968, Wallace took Mississipi (7), Louisianna (10), and Arkansas (6) for a total of 23 votes. Humphrey won only in Minnesota for 10 votes. Nixon took 118 electoral votes in the river states. Even without Wallace, Nixon would have won handily.

In 1964, Louisianna and Mississippi gave Barry Goldwater 17 electoral votes, the rest of the river states went to Johnson. In 1960, Mississippi gave 8 votes to Independent candidate Harry F. Byrd. Kennedy won in Louisianna (10), Arkansas (8), Missouri (13), Illinois (27), and Minnesota (11) for a total of 69 electoral votes. Nixon won in Ohio (25), Indiana (13), Kentucky (10), Tennessee (11), Wisconsin (12) and Iowa (10) for a total of 81 votes. Oops. Turns out this is an instance of the pattern not holding - but how often does Texas vote with New York?

In 1952 and 1956, Eisenhower won every state but Missouri, Arkansas, and Mississippi (Stevenson also won Kentucky in 1952, but lost it in ‘56). In ‘48, Truman took every river state except Indiana (Dewey), Mississippi (Thurmond), and Louisianna (Thurmond).

So it works every election but once since the end of World War 2. What does it say about 2008?

Well, Rasmussen puts only one of those states in the “toss-up” category - Ohio (20). Safe Republican states include Kentucky (8) and Tennessee (11). Likely Republican states include Arkansas (6), Indiana (11), Louisianna (9), and Mississippi (6). That’s a total of 51 likely votes for John McCain in November.

On the Democratic side, only Illinois (21) is safely in the Democratic collumn. Minnesota is the only “likely” Democratic state, with 10 electoral votes. That gives Obama only 31 electoral votes that he won’t have to work for much.

It’s the leaning states that show where things might lead. McCain leads in only Missouri (11). Obama leads in Iowa (7), and Wisconsin (10). Add the 17-10 advantage to the previous numbers and you get McCain with a 61-48 lead in the river states.

That puts Ohio in the spotlight. The twenty votes from Ohio either wipes out McCain’s lead altogether or makes it nearly insurmountable. Expect a lot of attention in that state through November.

Also expect some of those “leans Republican” states to move to the “toss-up” column from other parts of the country. One of the things about Obama’s 50-state strategy is that it is going to cause movement all over the place. But national trends will show up in these River states - and McCain’s lead in Arkansas, Louisianna, and Mississippi are in the single digits and he actually trails in the “leans GOP” state of Missouri. Obama’s margin is only in single-digits in Iowa and Wisconsin.

Ah, well. It’s a long way to November and a lot will change. That’s the only thing that is certain, no matter what numbers we look at.