A Christian Liberal is NOT an oxymoron.

Posted by XT on February 3rd, 2008 in Congress

I’ve been thinking about the “Republican Revolution” of 1994. It was historic because: 1) Republicans gained control of the House for the first time in 40 years; and 2) Democrats lost 54 (net) seats, including 34 incumbents. But the historic is much less impressive if we deconstruct it a bit.

In only one state did Republicans pick up more than five seats – Washington. They were Maria Cantwell (1992), Jolene Unsoeld (1988), Jay Inslee (1992), Tom Foley (1964), and Mike Kreidler (1992). Tom Foley was Speaker of the House, and his ouster had a lot to do with him trying to stop various investigations into the actions of guilty friends in DC. Of the remaining four, three were in their first re-election bid – and their first bid without a President to provide some coattails. Unsoeld had one prior mid-term election. That year, Slade Gordon was also re-elected to the Senate by a 55-45 margin over Democrat Ron Sims. Since Washington had elected a Governor in 1992, Gordon was the top of the ticket. In other words, it looks like a popular Republican headed up the slate and helped pick off some vulnerable Democrats. What’s more, Cantwell’s district had previously been held by a Republican, John Miller. The same is true for Inslee (Sid Morrison) and Kreidler was running in a brand-new district.

Six states netted Republicans between three and five seats – California, Texas, Ohio, Indiana, North Carolina, and Georgia. Listed below are the incumbents that lost.

California: top of the ticket – Diane Feinstein wins reelection with only 46.7% of the vote
Dan Hamburg (1992) – Freshman who was defeated by the man he defeated.
Richard Lehman (1982) – Though he had been around, he was in a traditionally conservative district. His ouster reflects more a desire to align with the “party of conservatives” than to get rid of Lehman himself.
Lynn Schenk (1992) – Freshman in a newly created district that was mostly Republican territory.
Norm Maneta (1974) – Maneta actually was re-elected, but left his seat in mid-term to work for Lockheed Martin. Republicans picked up the open seat.

Texas:
Jack Brooks (1952) – a huge upset, he was sunk by his anti-gun legislation and by the popularity of George W. Bush at the top of the ticket (and K. Bailey Hutchison for Senator) – also his name had surfaced in relation to the House Postal scandal and House Banking scandal. Brooks’ successor served one term and the seat was re-taken by Democrats.
Bill Sarpalius (1988) – A key proponent of NAFTA, he got hammered back home with George W. Bush at the top of the ticket (and K. Bailey Hutchison for Senator).
Greg Laughlin (1988) – Laughlin was actually re-elected as a Democrat, then switched parties.

Ohio: top of the ticket – Mike DeWine, with 53% of the vote led the Republican ticket
David Mann (1992) – a Freshman defending a seat he had won with no Republican opposition just two years earlier.
Ted Strickland (1992) – a freshman defending a newly created district that included a huge traditionally Republican component (both congressmen from the previous two districts were Republican)
Eric Fingerhut (1992) – Freshman in a traditionally Democratic district, but had just narrowly won election in ’92 – by about 14,000 votes
Douglas Applegate (1976) – retired and Republicans won the open seat.

Indiana: top of the ticket – Dick Lugar led Republicans with 67% of the vote
Frank McCloskey(1982) – this guy had won by lower margins in the preceding four elections – and then was caught up in the House Banking scandal.
Jill Long (1988) – she lost to a political neophyte. This is a case where the Revolution looks to be true.
Phillip Sharp – retired. Republicans picked up the empty seat.

North Carolina: No statewide race
Martin Lancaster (1986) – lost when his district was absorbed into a larger traditionally Republican district
Tim Valentine (1982) – retired. Republicans picked up the empty seat.
David Price (1988) – lost narrowly in a very low turnout race but retook it two years later.
Stephen Neal (1974) – retired. Republicans picked up the empty seat.

Georgia: Democrat Zell Miller wins Governorship with 51% of vote.
George Darden (1982) – narrowly defeated
Clete Johnson, Jr. (1992) – soundly defeated
J. Roy Rowland (1982) – retired. Republican picked up the empty seat.
Nathan Deal (1992) – Deal won re-election but switched parties.

So the big gains in these states are fairly easy to understand. Vulnerable freshman account for five of twenty-one seats and retirements account for another six. Two seats were picked up by Democrats changing parties. Scandals took down two big names in Texas. Democrats had no big names at the top of the ticket in any of these states – the biggest was Zell Miller, a conservative Democrat that would have provided no coattails for moderate Democrats.

Obviously, re-alignment did happen – you can see that clearly in Georgia where Darden and Johnson lost races that “should” have gone to the incumbents. You can also see it in the sweep of open seats. It was, however, a year of perfect storms – incumbent Dems weakened by being either Freshmen or by scandal, combined with strong Republican up-tickets, and a high number of Democratic retirements allowed Republicans to make inroads that would likely have been impossible for other years.

The big change would be of the smallest kind – twenty-one states change either one or two seats. It was death by a thousand cuts. It was a masterpiece of strategy that gave Republicans a single nationwide campaign and then poured money into every vulnerable seat it found – in both conception and exocution, it was bold and decisive.

Makes you wonder why Democrats haven’t figured out how to win again, doesn’t it?

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